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Post by darthporkchop on Jul 7, 2016 7:11:18 GMT -6
I have some questions regarding the dice rolls.
1st: Am I correct in saying that if both my opponent and I roll 1 of the combat dice there is a 33.3% chance of me dealing 1 point of damage? I'm fairly confident that is correct but if that is incorrect, please elaborate as to why.
2nd: Assuming my first statement is correct, how do I use that to figure out if we both roll 2 dice the odds of hitting 2, 1, and 0 damage, and so on?
I'd like to get a probability chart together, and need to make sure I'm using the right logic or I'd just be wasting my time. Most info that Lord Google has provided is regarding dice total numbers, not successes and failures.
Thanks!
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vermillionz
Neophyte
there is always a contingency, even for the contingency of the other contingency
Posts: 15 
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Post by vermillionz on Jul 7, 2016 7:16:13 GMT -6
Two factors apply to that statistic.
1. Your chances of rolling a hit
2. Their chances of rolling a defend
I played heroquest back in the day, and if I can find my old stats chart (I was a math nerd from day one) ill reconfigure it to the new dice for planeswalkers.
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Post by kajoq on Jul 7, 2016 14:33:28 GMT -6
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Post by darthporkchop on Jul 8, 2016 5:30:01 GMT -6
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Post by BeastMaster on Jul 9, 2016 13:39:23 GMT -6
I wonder why there are more attack sides than defense sides on the dice. What is this empty space good. To create imbalance ?
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Post by Targanth on Jul 9, 2016 21:21:35 GMT -6
In one sense, yes. The dice provide a minor advantage to the attacker. In an even fight (say a 3/3 vs a 3/3) there is an increased probability of a wound being scored on the defender. Since this is a tactical combat game, it makes sense for the attacker to have a slight advantage. If there were even number of sides, combats would generally last at least a bit longer, which might encourage sitting back and waiting for the opponent to come to you. There would be less of an advantage in ever choosing to attack. Allowing a slight advantage encourages (at least in a small way) attacking over sitting still.
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Post by lefton4ya on Jul 10, 2016 23:15:13 GMT -6
I wonder why there are more attack sides than defense sides on the dice. What is this empty space good. To create imbalance ? Most miniature games (including Risk, Warhammer, and Heroscape) give advantage to the attacker as it somewhat simulates real life battle where the aggressor can get a jump on people in most situations unless they know exactly when and where you are coming from. If you look at the truly incredible thread on Heroscapers Before Heroscape (which needs to get copied to this board and renamed Before Magic:Arena), you will learn that HeroQuest was the first game to introduce the dice with 3 attack and 2 defense symbols. Heroscape had Flag bearers that added a general symbol on the blank side of the dice that was used for a special  on the flag bearer; here's hoping Magic:AotP makes 5 different figures or sets with dice that have a different manna symbol on it, with some cool for that color. |
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Post by darthporkchop on Jul 11, 2016 5:27:46 GMT -6
Don't forget the other balancing factor. If the defender rolls all shields, it doesn't matter what the attacker rolls! If both players roll all "successful" rules, the defender wins every time. It's a deceivingly elegant setup, that after looking through the probabilities, I found that it gives the attacker just enough of an edge to make it worth attacking almost every time possible, yet making it rare enough that a lot of damage is done at one time. (Although it still can happen.)
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Post by Targanth on Jul 11, 2016 8:24:23 GMT -6
Don't forget the other balancing factor. If the defender rolls all shields, it doesn't matter what the attacker rolls! If both players roll all "successful" rules, the defender wins every time. It's a deceivingly elegant setup, that after looking through the probabilities, I found that it gives the attacker just enough of an edge to make it worth attacking almost every time possible, yet making it rare enough that a lot of damage is done at one time. (Although it still can happen.) I'm not sure where this rule is located. In the base game on page 11 it says: If the attacker rolls more crossed weapons symbols (hits) than the defender rolls shields, the attack is successful. For each unblocked crossed weapons symbol (hit) the attacker rolled, the defender is dealt one damage. For each damage dealt, a damage marker is placed either on the base of the figure or on the army card, depending on whether the figure is common or unique. If the figure is common, then any damage markers go on the base. If the figure is unique, then the damage marker goes on the army card. I don't see any reference to rolling all shields being a perfect defense. Suppose a figure with an 5 attack fights a figure with 1 tough. My understanding is that the figure with 1 tough can at most block 1 attack die that the attacker rolls. If the attacker rolls 2 or more crossed swords, it will ALWAYS do some damage to the 1 Tough defender. |
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Post by darthporkchop on Jul 11, 2016 8:31:04 GMT -6
I was generalizing under the assumption that the defender has the same number of dice as the attacker. You are 100% correct that if the defender rolls all shields and that number is fewer than the amount of shields damage is in fact dealt.
I meant more on a one-to-one die basis, sorry for not being clear!
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Post by lazyvermillionz on Jul 12, 2016 18:23:44 GMT -6
as well, we had a house rule for this in the heroquest/battlemasters games set up. the extra die space was a crit marker (it was the monster shield in heroquest) for a bit of added flair
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Post by Yawgmoth on Jul 15, 2016 12:20:46 GMT -6
This thread has been moved to the appropriate board of general discussions since this topic doesn't deal with armybuilding.
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Arcanis
Apprentice
Posts: 81
Title: The Omnipotent
Mana: Blue, Green, White
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Post by Arcanis on Feb 21, 2018 13:28:21 GMT -6
I thought I would crunch the numbers on combat probabilities so I made this spreadsheet: Combat Probabilities.xlsx (25.8 KB) Entering the of the attacker and  of the defender gives the probabilities (between 0 and 1) of rolling different numbers of swords and shields, and calculates the probability of damage being dealt. In each case the most likely scenario is in bold. The graph visualises this with less damage being darker grey and more damage being lighter grey. |
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on the flag bearer; here's hoping Magic:AotP makes 5 different figures or sets with dice that have a different manna symbol on it, with some cool 
of the defender gives the probabilities (between 0 and 1) of rolling different numbers of swords and shields, and calculates the probability of damage being dealt. In each case the most likely scenario is in bold. The graph visualises this with less damage being darker grey and more damage being lighter grey.